Theoretical quantification of ripple effect of delays in network schedules via activity cruciality

Many construction projects suffer delays. Their delay risk exacerbates as become larger with more complex schedules, because of the ‘ripple effect’, phenomenon that an individual activity can spread, accumulate, and quantifiably impact project finish. Its magnitude depends on intricate network schedule structure. Yet criticality is currently assessed based static durations. And index merely counts occurrences in probabilistic simulation runs without considering underlying dependency This research therefore establishes a methodology to systematically study track dynamic ripple effect. contribution body knowledge threefold: First, it develops measures connect levels within structure quantify aforementioned Second, explores cruciality variety structures concludes additive sequential paths proportion their variances merges parallel paths. Links other than default finish-to-start links may cause directionality change or even be bypassed, which its will reflect correctly. Third, substantiates results by simulating benchmark give practical suggestions for avoidance consider how shapes behavior.